Reconstructing Causal Reasoning about Evidence: a Case Study

نویسندگان

  • Henry Prakken
  • Silja Renooij
  • Arno R. Lodder
  • Ronald P. Loui
چکیده

When procedural-support systems are to be useful in practice, they should provide support for causal reasoning about evidence. Such support should be both rationally well-founded and natural to the users of such systems. This article studies two possible foundations for such support, logics for defeasible argumentation and logical models of causal-abductive reasoning. A court decision about a car accident is reconstructed in the two formalisms, and the results are compared on both their rationality and their naturalness. It is concluded that more research is needed to combine the strong points of the two approaches.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

How Causal Reasoning Can Bias Empirical Evidence

Theories of causal reasoning and learning often implicitly assume that the structural implications of causal models and empirical evidence are consistent. However, for probabilistic causal relations this may not be the case. We propose a causal consistency hypothesis claiming that people tend to create consistency between the two types of knowledge. Mismatches between structural implications an...

متن کامل

The Effect of Bayesian Reasoning Training on the Results of Clinical Reasoning Tests of Interns

Introduction: Clinical reasoning includes a range of thinking about clinical medicine at all stages of patient evaluation. Bayesian theory can be used to refute or confirm differential diagnoses in the clinical reasoning process. In this way, by learning the basic mathematical language of probability in medicine, we can change our beliefs according to new evidence. The aim of this study is to i...

متن کامل

PHD THESIS SUMMARY: Causal reasoning in economics: a selective exploration of semantic, epistemic and dynamical aspects

Many broad questions of high philosophical interest about causal reasoning in economics remain poorly answered. First, what are the meanings of causal claims? This is a semantic question. Second, how can a causal claim be adequately supported by evidence? This is an epistemological question. Third, how are causal beliefs affected by new information? This is a question about belief dynamics. Thi...

متن کامل

A Transitivity Heuristic of Probabilistic Causal Reasoning

In deterministic causal chains the relations „A causes B’ and „B causes C’ imply that „A causes C’. However, this is not necessarily the case for probabilistic causal relationships: A may probabilistically cause B, and B may probabilistically cause C, but A does not probabilistically cause C, but rather ¬C. The normal transitive inference is only valid when the Markov condition holds, a key fea...

متن کامل

Reasoning about E-vi ence in Causal Expllanations

Phyllis Koton* MIT Lab for Computer Science 545 Technology Square Cambridge, MA 02139 elanQOZ.AI.MIT.EDU Causal models can provide richly-detailed knowledge bases for producing explanations about behaviors in many domains, a task often termed interpretation or diagnosis. However, producing a causal explanation from the model can be time-consuming. This paper describes a system that solves a new...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2001